China Tracker - Details for American Lorain (ALN)

 American Lorain
Shares Outstanding (MRQ): 34.42 mill 
New Shares / Dilution (TTM): 8.15 mill31.05%
New Shares / Dilution (since Dec 31, 2008): 9.25 mill36.73% 
Cash (MRQ): 12.73 mill0.00%
Account Receivables (MRQ): 33.23 mill0.00%
Account Receivables (Q/Q): + 7.30 mill  
Long-Term Debt (MRQ): 5.03 mill0.00%
Revenue Growth (Q/Q): 71.25% 
Revenue Growth (Y/Y): 30.82%
Net Income Growth (Q/Q): 61.57% 
Net Income Growth (Y/Y): 30.41%
EPS Growth (Y/Y): -0.48%
Net Margin (Q/Q): 10.0% (10.6%)-0.60% 
Net Margin (Y/Y): 10.0% (10.0%)0.00% 
EPS | P/E (2 MRQ Projection): $0.770.00 
CFPS | P/CF (2 MRQ Projection): $1.100.00 
Price/Sales (2 MRQ Projection): 0.00
Price/Book (MRQ): 0.00 
Auditor: Samuel H. Wong & Co.
 
 Forward Projections (Fiscal Year)
EPS | P/E (Estimates updated 2010-10-31): $0.620.00 
 Basic Facts and History (show more)
Reporting Type: U.S. Company (10-K Filings) 
Going Public: Reverse Merger on 2007-05-03 
Uplisting to Senior Exchange: on 2009-09-08 at $2.84 (-100.00% since Uplisting)

 Business Outlook

We are optimistic about the second half of 2011 based on what we are seeing thus far. The efforts of our management group in all three business segments are producing greater efficiencies in both the operating infrastructure and costs control which will help us as we continue to grow. Despite the current uncertainties weighing on the global economy, we remain optimistic about the outlook of our market growth in China and as well as abroad because of growing demand, improving brand recognition, and balanced supply. We will continue to execute on the Company's core strategies of driving growth through each of our business segments.

(Source: PR Newswire, 2011-08-15)

American Lorain today announced that its Board of Directors has approved a share repurchase program that authorizes American Lorain to repurchase up to $5 million of its common stock in the open market or through privately negotiated transactions in the next 12 months. "We remain confident in the fundamentals and long-term prospects of our business. However, we believe our common shares are currently undervalued and are thus initiating this share buyback program. We will continue to focus on growing our business and thus enhancing shareholder value."

(Source: PR Newswire, 2011-06-30)

Chestnut sales (both domestically and internationally) have remained strong throughout the first four months of the year when compared to last. While it is always a challenge to precisely assess customer demand for our products, we are optimistic about fiscal 2011 based on what we are seeing thus far. The efforts of our management group in all three business segments are producing greater efficiencies in both the operating infrastructure and costs control which will help us as we continue to grow. We are in a very basic business, supplying easy, ready-to-eat food to individuals across the globe. In tough economic times, people tend to cook at home by shopping at their local grocer. This is our core business and, along with our international presence, we should be better positioned than many of our local competitors in this regard. We are optimistic about the outlook of our market growth in China and abroad because of growing demand, improving brand recognition, and balanced supply. We will continue to execute on the Company's core strategies of driving growth through each of our business segments.

(Source: PR Newswire, 2011-05-16)

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 Analyst Coverage (show less)
2011-08-16Rodman & RenshawReiterationOutperform$5.00
 

Margin pressure to remain Considering China's increasingly inflationary environment, the company's below-expectation Q2 gross margin did not strike us as a major surprise. In fact, we had already tempered our margin expectations after Q1 results. We now expect the inflationary environment will continue in the near to medium term future and exert pressure on the company margins. This could be further exacerbated by the company's product-mix shift to a higher percentage of sales from convenience foods, which typically carry slightly lower margins than chestnut products. In this regard, we are now taking on an even more conservative approach in our margin outlook for the next several quarters.

2011-05-18Rodman & RenshawReiterationOutperform$5.00
 

We have adjusted our estimates for FY2011 and FY2012 to reflect the recent quarterly performance. We now expect total revenue in FY11 and FY12 will reach $223.9 million and $274.8 million, respectively. We now project net income will be $21.9 million in FY11, or $0.62 per diluted share. The respective numbers in FY12 are $28.2 million and $0.79. We continue to view American Lorain as a transforming growth story evolving from basically a chestnut processor to a diversified full-service packaged food manufacturer, and believe the company offers attractive investment potential for investors looking for growth opportunities in China's consumer sector. The shares are trading at 3.6x its expected 2011 EPS, which in our opinion represents an attractive valuation. Thus we are maintaining our Market Outperform rating on the shares of American Lorain. We are, however, lowering our price target to $5 from $6 previously. Our new $5 price target is based on the shares trading at 8x our expected 2011 EPS estimate of $0.62.

2011-04-21Rodman & RenshawReiterationOutperform$6.00
 

We view American Lorain as a transforming story evolving from basically a chestnut processor to a diversified full-service packaged food manufacturer. The company's bread-and-butter chestnut business has an existing strong market presence, and could bring steady annual percentage growth rates in the mid-teens in the near to medium term future. This established industry and marketing position, with its built-in distribution network and brand awareness, further facilitates the company's effort of aggressively expanding its convenience foods business, which offers significant growth and diversification potential. Underscored by China's rapid increase in disposable income and urbanization, we believe the company offers attractive investment potential for investors looking for growth opportunities in China's consumer sector.

2011-04-08Maxim GroupDowngradeHoldn/a
2011-04-06Rodman & RenshawReiterationOutperform$6.00
 

Maintaining Market Outperform Rating and 12-month PT of $6. At $2.39, ALN shares are still trading at only 3.4x our 2011 EPS of $0.69. Our 12-month PT of $6 applies ~7x to our 2012 EPS estimate of $0.83, which assumes some multiple recovery in the U.S.-listed Chinese company universe. A common point of feedback with ALN previously, is its negative operating cash flows in 2009. The 2010 10-K filing, which illuminated a more normalized OCF level, gives us continued confidence in this name.

ALN is currently followed by 5 analysts. 4 give the stock a positive rating, 1 rate it neutral and 0 give it a negative rating. The average price target is 5.56.


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 Recent Financings
2010-01-29Filing$100.00 mill--

 Investor Presentations
2010-07-12 (HTML)   VIEW
2010-03-07 (HTML)   VIEW
ALN
Food
SCORE
-1
READ: Score Cards Explained
SAFETY/RISK SCORE
MODERATE RISK
DETAILS: Safety/Risk Model for ALN
Current Price:  n/a
F10k Day (2008-02-21): -100.00%$9.00
2009 Close: -100.00%$3.05
2010 Close: -100.00%$2.61
2011 Close: -100.00%$1.60
High (2012-10-19): -100.00%$1.48
Low (2012-07-19): -100.00%$1.01
Exchange:
Market Capitalization: n/a
Total Shares: 34.42 mill
Float: n/a
Avg Volume: 146.80 k
Short Interest: 59.60 k
Short Ratio: 0.56%0.4 d
Last Quarter: 2010-12-31
Revenue (MRQ): 82.32 mill
Net Income (MRQ): 8.21 mill
Op. Cash Flow (MRQ): 33.86 mill
all financial data provided without warranty